Severe Weather Outbreak Concerns Early Next Week

Concerns are growing for a possible severe weather outbreak next week.  And if not next week, some time in before the month is over.  The atmosphere is primed for winter, as we'll discuss later, but before winter comes, we have to get this warmth out of the way.  This should result in at least a small outbreak before November is over.  Right now, we are starting to pin down that time.  Here is the SPC's 4-8 day outlook:

We can see that the Storm Prediction Center believes that the worst of the severe weather will occur in Oklahoma/Texas on Day 5, followed by another risk in the ArkLaTex region on Day 6.  Here is my preliminary map for this time frame:

This map essentially merges both days' outlook into one map.  I have the moderate risk out for the first day of the outbreak, but I don't think the threat is large enough to put the moderate risk out for the next day.  Stay tuned!