Severe Weather Outlook

Today is another day where the SPC decided to issue a slight risk.  Today could be rather interesting, both by what might happen and by some big uncertainties in the forecast.  First, the SPC's map:

The main items of uncertainty are where storms will fire, whether they'll develop into a cluster of thunderstorms, and if a cluster forms, where will it go.  As usual, everyone in the yellow areas should make sure that they and other people nearby know that they have a risk for severe storms including damaging winds, hail, and even an isolated tornado.  Make sure you have an accurate source for receiving watches and warnings, and that you know what to do if one is issued.  Here is my map:

In today's map, I opted against putting western North Dakota and Montana in the slight risk, mainly due to uncertainties I had of whether or not storms would even fire.  They may see a few strong storms though, and depending on trends, they may be upgraded to a slight risk.  Otherwise, I highlighted a general area where I expected an MCS, or small cluster of thunderstorms, to move.  This was mainly based off of one computer model, with input from other models too.  One computer actually put the severe MCS in Chicago, but I opted not to go that far south just yet.  In a nutshell, this map will likely need some tweaking.  One last thing I wanted to show you was this:

This shows the probability of severe weather being reported in your area based on analog events (dates in the past with a similar set up to this one) and computer model data.  This has proved as an accurate guideline for me in the past.  Stay tuned!