Heavy Snow Occurring in West Texas

That's right folks, we're seeing yet another snow event for some areas in Texas.  There are currently some winter storm warnings in that area.  Let's take a look:

Winter Storm Warnings are pink, while Advisories are the light blue color

The SPC, or Storm Prediction Center, is also highlighting an area of concern for this winter storm:

In this image, they highlight where heavy snow is occurring or expected to develop.  They are also expecting thundersnow.  Latest analysis of the area does show that there is some instability hanging around there.  All in all, the National Weather Service is expecting a good 5-10" thumping across these areas.  Stay safe if you're out driving, and stay tuned!

Big Snows in Our Near Future?

The ECMWF and the GFS both have big snows coming soon, around New Years.  The question is whether or not they're correct and if so, what will the track be.  We are going to be showing you images from the GFS model.  The ECMWF shows a stronger storm, but I currently think that the GFS is more plausible at this time with the way it works things out with the way the storm works out after it is gone.  The GFS has a storm quickly developing before moving right on out, and that's what I think is more likely with the way this pattern is going, with now major changes indicated currently.  As always, something drastic could happen, but I am not counting on it as of right now.  That being said, let's look at the GFS model from 12z at hour number 150:

The GFS shows a low pressure area developing before quickly moving out.  Behind it, a trough of cold air develops, but it quickly gets out of the way for yet another ridge set to move in.  At this point, I like this solution due to the pattern that we are currently experiencing, and the little signs of significant change that I see right now.  The ECMWF shows a storm system marching up the coast, putting down a lot of snow across the east.  Time will tell which model comes true, if any.  But for now, stay tuned!

No WinterChat! tonight

I know, I know, sorry.  I'll try to get back on track tomorrow.  MAJOR changes in a potential snowstorm next week.  Stay tuned.

Ice Threat Likely, Snow not so much with Current Storm in the Plains

An threat for some nasty conditions has developed in the Plains states, where some warnings/advisories regarding the threat of ice have been issued by the NWS.  This is the storm I talked about in WinterChat! over the past few days for the time frame of December 14-17.  Now that I am bringing in real posts about it, I will stop discussing it in WinterChat!.  Anyways, my general thinking has come to fruition in terms that there will not be an excessive snow threat with this storm.  However, ice/slush is likely, and that can be just as dangerous while driving.

In the above map, we have all of the warnings/watches issued by the NWS.  The pink areas in the red circles are where the NWS has issued a warning for ice.  Just remember folks, while it may not be snowing, be careful in the roads tonight on the Plains.  This storm is expected to bring a lot of precipitation to the Plains areas, as shown in this QPF map:

That's all I have on this storm folks, stay tuned!

Winter Pattern Change is Coming...

The stratosphere has begun warming at the five millibar level.  Here is an image:

If we look really closely, we can see that the red line, which denotes temperature, is beginning to wiggle back upwards.  In other words, the stratosphere is warming.  Now why would I, or any meteorologist at that, be concerned about warming taking place up in the stratosphere?  Well, when the stratosphere warms in winter, it forces cold air southward, simply said.  The stratosphere is doing this because of the negative trend of the QBO, or Quasi Biennial Oscillation.  The QBO essentially measures the direction and strength of the winds in the Pacific at high altitudes.  Right now, we are entering a negative to strongly negative QBO, which means that the winds are easterly.  These will cause massive changes in the weather we've been seeing lately.  This may take you by surprise folks.  Stay tuned!

WinterChat! Saturday, December 10, 2011

We have more than a few things to talk about this afternoon.  First, we are going to look at an oppurtunity for a big snow between Wednesday and Friday of this week.  Next, we'll discuss a storm looking to make a snowy impact between December 17th and 21st.  Finally, we'll look into the possibility of a Christmas time snowstorm. First up, this week's storm.  It looks as if a low pressure system will develop in Colorado before moving north and east through the Midwest.  Overall, I expect something like this to happen:

Now this has plenty of time to change, so don't hold this as something that is set in stone.  Anyway, it looks like the best shot at accumulating snowfall will be from Nebraska through Minnesota, but I don't think it will be as much as in previous storms as the cold air isn't looking to move as far south this time.  A mix of rain and snow will stay closer to the low pressure area, while rain will hit areas further south.  Here is CityCast, something that will tell you what to expect in your area if current data holds true:

• Minneapolis, MN: Snow
• Des Moines, IA: Mix of Precipitation
• Omaha, NE: Mix of Precipitation
• Chicago, IL: Rain
• Milwaukee, WI: Rain
• Green Bay, WI: Mix of Precipitation
• Detroit, MI: Rain
• Indianapolis, IN: Rain

The next storm we are watching is a storm that looks to take shape between December 17th and 21st.  This storm looks to be tracking a little bit further south than the one we just talked about, and has a better shot at producing large amounts of snow.  Now we can't get down to details on this one, but it looks like a big one.  There is lots of uncertainty on this one, so a cool map like the one above isn't available.  Still, we tried:

Because of the uncertainty, there will be no CityCast for this one.  The last storm is the one to occur around Christmas time.  A LOT of uncertainty on this one, so there will be no map.  We will just give a little statement about it, in that this has potential to impact a lot of holiday travel with some big snow, so stay tuned!

Snow Update

Snow has been falling all night long across some areas.  And it's not done yet.  Here are the watches and warnings from the NWS.  I have circled the wintry weather related ones:

Those pink box in the middle of the blueish band is where 6-10" of snow could fall.  The snow band that will hit this area is just beginning to get ramped up, according to the Storm Prediction Center, who issued a mesoscale discussion regarding this:

With the snow getting heavy at times, accumulations will be widespread.  This is shown by the probability of more than an inch of snow today:

We can easily see the general location of the snowband.  This is all I have for now, so stay tuned!

When Will Winter Come?????

THIS POST IS OUT OF DATE!!!!!!  REFER TO this post.
I know that a lot of you out there are snow lovers, and you are getting tired of the "warm" weather.  I also am willing to bet that a lot of people who read this blog are snow haters.  We all know that across the northern regions, snow is inevitable.  Eventually, winter will sweep over, and snow will cover the ground.  At this point, the question is when.  Well, we are already seeing signs that the atmosphere is gearing up for a big cold blast, one that may potentially last through the winter.  First of all, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, has been positive over the last few months.  This has allowed cold air to build in the Arctic and Western Canada:

However, it is starting to look like a turn to a negative NAO is coming.  This will allow for the cold air that has been building up to spill southward through the United States.  Models are also showing the Greenland Block making a return, which generally leads to cold in the United States.  Let me show you what the models think is coming in the 8-10 day time frame:

I want you first to know that you should not take these maps for given, considering this a long ways out.  The arrival time is likely to be delayed a little bit.  I want you to pay particular attention to the GFS model's interpretation (on the right).  It is a perfect example of the Greenland block.  We see a lot of blocking in Greenland, causing cold air to spill southward into the US.  Again, the question isn't if, but when.  The NAO may hold a clue to that.  The GFS ensembles are showing the NAO diving negative over time:

This would result in some cold air across the eastern USA.  In summary, it looks like the NAO will go negative, and the country will turn cold.  The question is when.  While the models are showing this pattern change arriving in the next 1-2 weeks, I think it may wait until about halfway through November before we truly get cold.  Don't despair snow lovers!  Stay tuned!

Winter is Coming... And so is our Winter Forecast...

As many of you already know, winter is just around the corner.  Multiple locations nationwide have already experienced their first flurries, with a few places already seeing accumulations.  As October comes to a close, winter's comeback becomes even more noticeable, as temperatures begin to truly plummet in most areas.  Winter will arrive in just a few weeks.  And this means that our winter forecast is coming in this time period too.  While official release dates aren't necessary at this time, we expect to have it up before winter truly arrives.  Stay tuned!

Snowstorm Next Week?

That's right folks, we are looking at the potential for the first all out snowstorm to hit to hit the eastern US of the season.  We are still in the preliminary stages of forecasting this event, and a lot of things could change.  Here is the GFS at hour 156:

We can see a well defined storm with a lot of moisture to work with.  Lower Michigan could easily see a significant storm (6+") if this were to happen during the weekend.  The only problem is temperatures.  The fact is that this storm may end up producing more of a rain/snow/ice mix than anything else in the main area of precipitation.  Plus, even if it does snow, the ground temperatures may end up being too warm.  We may still end up seeing a few inches of snow on the back side though.  This is definitely a storm to watch, and I will definitely have more updates later on as this does have potential to impact some daily activities.  Stay tuned!