Big Snows in Our Near Future?

The ECMWF and the GFS both have big snows coming soon, around New Years.  The question is whether or not they're correct and if so, what will the track be.  We are going to be showing you images from the GFS model.  The ECMWF shows a stronger storm, but I currently think that the GFS is more plausible at this time with the way it works things out with the way the storm works out after it is gone.  The GFS has a storm quickly developing before moving right on out, and that's what I think is more likely with the way this pattern is going, with now major changes indicated currently.  As always, something drastic could happen, but I am not counting on it as of right now.  That being said, let's look at the GFS model from 12z at hour number 150:

The GFS shows a low pressure area developing before quickly moving out.  Behind it, a trough of cold air develops, but it quickly gets out of the way for yet another ridge set to move in.  At this point, I like this solution due to the pattern that we are currently experiencing, and the little signs of significant change that I see right now.  The ECMWF shows a storm system marching up the coast, putting down a lot of snow across the east.  Time will tell which model comes true, if any.  But for now, stay tuned!

Snowy Weather Possible for the Ohio Valley

It looks like a storm system will begin its trek through the Ohio Valley today, bringing with it potential for accumulating snow.  Uncertainties still exist as some models don't really show snow accumulations, and I'm not even sold on it.  That's why the title of this post and all of my maps will say possible on them.  First let's start off with today.  The HPC is hinting at a very slight possibility for more than four inches of snow:

While only a ten percent chance for greater than four inches of snow doesn't seem like a lot, it's very big for those areas, especially in November.  Here is USA Weather's official map:

Not a wide range in accumulations, so I just put out one color area for the whole thing.  This one could come as a surprise, as people in this region don't usually experience snow until later in the year.  Of slightly greater concern is when this storm tracks through the Ohio Valley.  Here is my map:

Three to six inches is possible in the light blue region, with higher amounts in the darker blue area.  It looks like a fun storm!  Later on into next weekend, it looks like another storm will move through with potential for a few inches of snow.  Behind that, a strong cold blast will move through.  Just another tidbit to look forward to.  Stay tuned!

Potential Increasing for Snow Next Week across Great Lakes

Now before I set off an alarm, I have to say that this is still a whole week away, and plenty can change.  So don't take anything I say here as true, but stuff that has potential to happen.  Now, let's get started.  This will all start around the weekend after Thanksgiving.  On Saturday the 26th, an area of low pressure moves up, producing warm air and showers across the Western Great Lakes:

By the following Tuesday, however, the GFS shows that cold air moves southward, creating a snowy situation for folks across the Western Great Lakes:

The snow would in general be light, however accumulation would most certainly be possible, especially if a bout of heavier snow occurs in association with any possible embedded storm systems.  The snow was looking even worse for these areas yesterday afternoon, and there is no reason to say it won't go back to that.  Stay tuned on this one.

First Snow Has Fallen!

We are proud to announce that the first snow of the season has fallen here at our headquarters!  For about 30 minutes, the rain yesterday turned into very heavy snow.  It didn't accumulate on the ground, but we did get a couple of trees coated with snow!  It was certainly a lot of fun.  Stay tuned.

Signs that Winter will be Snowy

Some people may know that this winter is shaping up to be very cold.  At this point, however, it is looking more and more likely that it will be very snowy, at least for certain areas.  The fact is, upper level temperatures are the coldest they've been for a while, and it appears that this helps produce bigger snowstorms.  Another thing is that we are seeing a lot of really slow moving storm systems.  The slower a storm moves, the more time there is for snow to fall, which leads to bigger accumulations.  Just a little piece of info for you to chew on until our official winter outlook is released.  Stay tuned!

Winter is Coming... And so is our Winter Forecast...

As many of you already know, winter is just around the corner.  Multiple locations nationwide have already experienced their first flurries, with a few places already seeing accumulations.  As October comes to a close, winter's comeback becomes even more noticeable, as temperatures begin to truly plummet in most areas.  Winter will arrive in just a few weeks.  And this means that our winter forecast is coming in this time period too.  While official release dates aren't necessary at this time, we expect to have it up before winter truly arrives.  Stay tuned!

Snowstorm Next Week?

That's right folks, we are looking at the potential for the first all out snowstorm to hit to hit the eastern US of the season.  We are still in the preliminary stages of forecasting this event, and a lot of things could change.  Here is the GFS at hour 156:

We can see a well defined storm with a lot of moisture to work with.  Lower Michigan could easily see a significant storm (6+") if this were to happen during the weekend.  The only problem is temperatures.  The fact is that this storm may end up producing more of a rain/snow/ice mix than anything else in the main area of precipitation.  Plus, even if it does snow, the ground temperatures may end up being too warm.  We may still end up seeing a few inches of snow on the back side though.  This is definitely a storm to watch, and I will definitely have more updates later on as this does have potential to impact some daily activities.  Stay tuned!

ANOTHER Big Storm?

While this current storm that we are dealing with definitely has not lived up to hype by means of snow, it will be followed by another storm that could bring some wickedly cold air around Halloween weekend.  For right now, I won't get into specifics, however a bigger update may become necessary this afternoon.  Stay tuned!

Latest Snow Update

I have created a map with the snow area and track of next week's storms.  I may have a discussion out later this evening, so stay tuned!

SnoScale Updated

We have issued our first of hopefully many SnoScale maps on our SnoScale page.  This was in response to the snow that is expected across the Midwest into the Great Lakes.  Check it out!

GFS Snow System Update

Well the GFS has been consistent with its low pressure system, and with the fact that snow may be on the back side of it.  Now, the ECMWF has finally sided with the GFS, as we woke up to this picture which is about 192 hours into the future:

Unfortunately this model does not show precipitation this far out.  We aren't going to go into specific snow amounts quite yet, but the fact that we are getting consistency with the models is just making snow more and more likely for the Midwest/Great Lakes region.  Stay tuned!

GFS Snow System

Well, last night I was looking at the models and I found that the GFS was producing a snowy solution, bringing a low originating in the Rockies through the Plains and Upper Midwest with some snow on the backside of it.  Nothing huge, maybe 2-4" at best, but it was certainly interesting to look at.  This morning, I found it again.  This time, the track was farther south.  This is valid about midnight on the morning of Tuesday, October 18th.  Here it is:

Just so you know, this image is 192 hours out.  This time frame isn't in total model lala land, but it's getting close.  In simple terms, expect this solution to change.  As we analyze the image, it is apparent that there simply isn't enough moisture to produce a heavy snowfall with this system.  My best guess would be about 1.5" up to maybe 3".  And again, we do expect this to change.  Here is Twisterdata.com's GFS snowfall map:

We can see about an inch of snowfall being painted in the heaviest snow area.  I will be checking up and tracking this storm throughout the week, so expect more updates.  Stay tuned!