Pattern Change Coming

The pattern change is finally here!  I know that the majority of you have been waiting for this to happen, and it finally appears to be happening.  Let's get started!  Here is the stratospheric temperature at 10 millibars:

We can see that the stratosphere has warmed quite a lot over the past few days!  This is usually a good sign during the winter that the pattern will change!  Let's hope it comes through, because we have a lot of catching up to do!  Next we're going to look at the teleconnections.  First up we have the Pacific North American Pattern, or PNA for short:

We can see in the above image that the PNA is expected to stay at about neutral, if not slightly negative.  When you get a negative version of the PNA, a trough develops out west, with a ridge in the east.  If you are looking at a positive PNA, just flip the previous sentence.  Most people in the east prefer a positive version of this pattern, as it gives the east coast cold and snow.  However, a negative PNA is still serviceable.  Here is the NAO:

We can see that the NAO is forecasted to remain at neutral.  This doesn't really favor anyone in the country for cold and snow.  When we take all of these into account, I think we will get something like this:

It looks like that with a negative PNA and a negative Arctic Oscillation, we will get a trough in the west, but frequent cold shots hitting the east as well.  With this colder pattern, the blue area on this map will finally start seeing significant winter storms.  Stay tuned!

Big Snows in Our Near Future?

The ECMWF and the GFS both have big snows coming soon, around New Years.  The question is whether or not they're correct and if so, what will the track be.  We are going to be showing you images from the GFS model.  The ECMWF shows a stronger storm, but I currently think that the GFS is more plausible at this time with the way it works things out with the way the storm works out after it is gone.  The GFS has a storm quickly developing before moving right on out, and that's what I think is more likely with the way this pattern is going, with now major changes indicated currently.  As always, something drastic could happen, but I am not counting on it as of right now.  That being said, let's look at the GFS model from 12z at hour number 150:

The GFS shows a low pressure area developing before quickly moving out.  Behind it, a trough of cold air develops, but it quickly gets out of the way for yet another ridge set to move in.  At this point, I like this solution due to the pattern that we are currently experiencing, and the little signs of significant change that I see right now.  The ECMWF shows a storm system marching up the coast, putting down a lot of snow across the east.  Time will tell which model comes true, if any.  But for now, stay tuned!

Winter Pattern Change is Coming...

The stratosphere has begun warming at the five millibar level.  Here is an image:

If we look really closely, we can see that the red line, which denotes temperature, is beginning to wiggle back upwards.  In other words, the stratosphere is warming.  Now why would I, or any meteorologist at that, be concerned about warming taking place up in the stratosphere?  Well, when the stratosphere warms in winter, it forces cold air southward, simply said.  The stratosphere is doing this because of the negative trend of the QBO, or Quasi Biennial Oscillation.  The QBO essentially measures the direction and strength of the winds in the Pacific at high altitudes.  Right now, we are entering a negative to strongly negative QBO, which means that the winds are easterly.  These will cause massive changes in the weather we've been seeing lately.  This may take you by surprise folks.  Stay tuned!