Hurricane Irene Briefing #05

Well, the models are trending again.  And the latest trend has not been good.  Over the past couple of runs, the models are starting to push the storm back westward again, bringing it on a better path for a direct hit with North Carolina, with Outer Banks getting hit hardest.  This map shows the last few model runs for this storm, with the darkest lines being the most recent tracks.  The image is showing the consensus of all the models:

We can see that the last few runs have indeed trended back westward.  Yesterday morning it looked like it was trending eastward.  The following map shows the alerts for this storm and the NHC's official track:

The intensity forecast really has not changed.  That is all I have for you today.  One more quick announcement, it looks like I will NOT be in office at ALL this afternoon and evening.  Stay tuned.

Hurricane Irene Briefing #04

No video for today.  Let's get started!  Irene's potential to hit New England directly is increasing, whereas the potential for a Carolinas direct hit is decreasing.  Irene has just become a Category three hurricane according to the update issued by the National Hurricane Center just a few minutes ago.  Here is the NHC's latest track:

They are simply trying to ride the latest model runs.  At this time it looks like they only have a Carolina landfall on the Outer Banks.  They do however bring the center of the hurricane straight into New England, which could be a potentially devastating solution, even with a weaker storm.  I do think that the most interesting story however is the continued eastward trend in the models.  Here is a look at the trends of the model consensus.  The darkest line is the latest preferred track, with the lighter blues indicating earlier model runs:

The eastward trend is very visible.  Finally, here is the latest NHC intensity forecast:

That is all I have for you now.  Stay tuned!

Hurricane Irene Briefing #03

I am here once again to brief you on Irene's status.  As a few of you may know, Hurricane Irene poses a serious threat to the United States, with potential for a Category 3 or higher storm to slam the Carolinas.  I have already briefed you in past videos, so those who frequently view this blog should know.  First we are going to show you the NHC's track:

The NHC brings a major hurricane into North Carolina by 2 am Sunday morning.  Here is another image:

People who live inside of the black hatched area should begin preparing for hurricane conditions now.  Obviously, most of those areas are not going to be hit, but this map is there to show us the potential errors that the NHC can have.  A sudden shift in the computer models, then BAM! a large and extremely dangerous hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico.  Everybody along the East and Gulf coasts of the US, in the Bahamas, Cuba, and any other major island in the path of this storm should closely monitor this storm's progress.  Once this system gets inland (if it does), heavy rain will become a serious threat along the entire East Coast of the US.  Even more concerning is the NHC's intensity forecast:

It brings it up to 135 mph in the storm's peak.  I will not go into the models, as viewing them will cause even more reason for people to be afraid.  Again, potential remains for this storm to go out to see.  In summary, while it may look like a doomsday situation for portions of the US and the Caribbean, there is plenty of time for this to change, so stay tuned.

Notice

A significant problem has occurred, leading to the cancellation of this morning's video.

Video Briefing Coming Soon

As of right now we are encoding our latest video briefing, once again filled with info on the evolution of hurricane Irene.  Expect to see it within a half hour.  Stay tuned!

Tropical Storm Irene Briefing #02

The video explains the latest thinking on this potential monstrosity.  Here is my map:

Stay tuned!

Tropical Storm Irene Briefing #01

Stay tuned!