Severe Weather Outlook for April 13, 2012

We yet again have a severe threat to deal with today.  Its really been a rough week for the Plains, with a lot of slight risks being issued.  I am sorry for my absence yesterday, I was on an all day field trip.  Anyway, back to severe weather.  The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms:

General Outlook

Tornado Outlook

Hail Outlook

Wind Outlook

With a glance at those maps, I know that this is already looking like the most likely day for an upgrade to a moderate risk so far this week.  It appears that the SPC is really hitting it up on the hail threat for this afternoon.  After glancing at the models for this afternoon, it appears definite to me that there is a threat for supercells and tornados with tonight's event.  First of all, instability is sufficient to produce severe thunderstorms.  Also, there is plentiful shear for storms to really get going.  Another thing that I looked at is the fact that LCL heights are much lower to the ground than previous events this week have had.  LCL, or Lifted Condensation Level is basically where the temperature equals the dewpoint first.  It is a good indicator for how high the cloud base will be.  Today, LCLs are relatively low, so we can expect a couple of tornados across the risk area, particularly in Oklahoma.  Also, anvil level winds support High Precipitation to Classic supercells, with the latter being the most likely to produce a tornado, particularly strong ones.  Taking all of this into account, I got this:

I decided not to issue a moderate risk quite yet due to some uncertainty as to exactly what the main forcing is.  Also, the SPC has not issued a moderate risk yet, so I decided to just play it safe.  Please note however that this is a high end slight risk, and strong tornados are possible today.  If the situation warrants, I may upgrade this to a moderate in a *possible* update this afternoon.  For now, stay tuned!

Apology

I am sorry I have been gone for a while, something unexpected came up.  I will *try* to get back to normal for tomorrow.

Yet Another Apology

Sigh...  It seems like I right way too many apology posts, but here's another one.  I am deeply sorry for my extended absence since the beginning of the month.  I am thinking that I will be able to come back this weekend, but I am not positive.  Just been a crazy week and a half, but things look to finally be clearing up.  Stay tuned folks!

Really a Slow Day Today

Well we really don't have much of anything to talk about today.  We have gotten record page-views over the past two days, which makes me feel bad because I really haven't been doing much of anything.  So my excuse for now is that we haven't seen much weather across the US.  I guess that this is mostly a good thing.  Days like today are good for research.  So we will basically be improving our winter forecast and doing some cold hard research on the weather.  You can never know too much!  Stay tuned!

Apology

I'm here to say that I am sorry for my recent absence.  It was really just bad planning on my part, and that's inexcusable.  Stay tuned.

Back in Operation

I am deeply sorry about what has happened over the past month, as I have been extremely busy with school work.  However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.  It appears that I won't be able to post this Tuesday, but from then on out I will be fine.  Thus, we are back in operation!  We have many things to talk about obviously, as the weather pattern is currently in the transition period between Summer and Winter.  Over the past week it has been pretty warm across my region because of a ridge that has decided to park itself in the center of the country.  Lucky for me, though, a disturbance is moving through which should finally bring some rain into the area this coming week.  We'll have more on that later.  Next week, the National Weather Service is thinking that highs in far Northern Illinois will struggle to reach the mid-50s!  And that is average temperatures for this time of year.  I look forward to having an excellent fall and winter season here, so stay tuned!

Well...

Obviously, it has been a while.  Over the past week that we have not posted in, this blog has fell to shambles.  The lack of posting will not happen again without further notice.  We plan to bring our blog right back out of this mess.  Stay tuned.

Apology

I am very sorry for not posting the past few days.  I have been very busy with school stuff, as school starts up tomorrow.  When school starts, you can expect periods without any posting at all.  The expected time would be between 8:00 am and 8:00 pm on most days.  There will be a few where I get home early, around 4:00 pm, where I may be able to post more.  It should work out something like this: I get up in the morning, post on my blog with tropical and severe weather outlooks, before heading off to school.  If there is anything I need to update you on when I get home, I will try to get it out before 9:30 pm.  Because we must leave earlier, the outlooks will generally be less detailed, with some even being written the night before.  Just a heads up!  Stay tuned!

Apology

I do realize that we are currently experiencing tropical storm Don.  Due to vacation however I can not create a page for him.  I will still be able to put up an update on the blog this morning though.  Stay tuned!