Winter Forecast... Finally!

Okay guys, not surprisingly I have received a few complaints about not getting the winter forecast out.  So I just figured, Merry Christmas, here you go.  What's going on this year is that we have a weak La Nina.  A La Nina tends to bring a trough in the west/central part of the country, and a ridge in the southeast part of the country.  In general, the Midwest and Northeast experience a cooler pattern out of this.  Obviously, this hasn't been the case as of late.  Because the La Nina is so weak, it has lost it's grip on the rest of the weather and how we think it should play out.  This has allowed the Midwest/East areas to have some very warm temperatures this December, along with little to no snow.  This has been mainly a result of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation and a positive Arctic Oscillation.  These indices relate to the placement/strength of the pressure gradients across the Arctic.  In other words, it relates to the way winds flow around the earth.  In a positive version of these indices, much of the country is above normal in the temperature department, and we also tend to see a lot of precipitation.  Now as of right now, I am looking at a time around Mid-January for when the pattern flops and the cold and snow return to the east.  This is due to stratospheric warming occurring right now.  This should flip the AO to negative, with the NAO following in suit.  Now what does this mean for the country?  It means that I still think we will be seeing a flip to colder conditions sooner rather than later.  The following maps reflect what has happened already, and what I expect to happen soon.

All right here we go!  First off, let's take a look at temperatures compared to average for this winter.  Let's start in the Southeast.  As you can see in the map above, I expect warmer than average conditions to be common in the Southeast this winter.  This is mainly in response to the Southeast ridge that I expect to develop this winter.  Now minus this area of above average temperatures, you may be surprised to find that the rest of the country is either average or below average!  That's how big I expect this pattern change to be.  Once it happens, it should be able to even out the positive temperature deficits.  The Southwest is below average because of the cold they have been experiencing as of late with the trough in place.  I expect that they will get some cold shots later in the winter too.

Okay on to precipitation.  I expect that the West Coast will get hammered with precipitation this year, so I have put that area in on the map in the Northwest.  I expect that below average precipitation should develop in the Southeast and Southwest.  There will also be a large area of above average precipitation right smack in the middle of the country and Northeast.  This has to do with the excessively active storm tracks that I expect to continue throughout this winter.  Many cities across the Ohio Valley are breaking/close to breaking rainfall records for this year.  This should lead to enhanced amounts of snow across these regions, but it may not be enough to bring them up to average after a slow start...

Areas that already got a nice start with snow this year should experience above average snow as they should only expect snow to continue.  Because of this, I have highlighted the Northeast (October Snowstorm), the Pacific Northwest (Active Storm Tracks) and the Midwest.  The areas in between in the Ohio Valley won't be able to come back to average after a slow start, but they should still expect an exciting winter this year.

We are looking at an ice threat across the Central US this winter, as I still expect that a storm or two will take a northerly track and produce at least a small freezing rain threat for these areas.  A threat for a bigger ice storm will be mainly across the southern portions of this area.  Here are my forecast storm tracks for the winter:

First let's start with our blue track.  These are where Alberta Clippers should go.  These storms will bring cold air and nuisance snows to the Midwest.  The red tracks are where storms will develop in the Panhandle region/Colorado before moving up into the Midwest.  A similar thing will occur in the orange track, except these will emerge straight from the Gulf of Mexico.  These two tracks will be the ones that will bring the Midwest copious amounts of moisture and precipitation.  A similar thing will occur in the Northeast, highlighted by the purple track.  And last but not least, the green track will bring the West Coast its weather makers for this winter.

Pattern 1

Pattern 2

The above two images are my final two images of the day.  These display the major patterns that I expect to occur this winter.  There is a typo on the second pattern.  It says "Pattern #1" when it should say "Pattern #2".  Okay, that's all I have for now.  Stay tuned!

Winter Pattern Change is Coming...

The stratosphere has begun warming at the five millibar level.  Here is an image:

If we look really closely, we can see that the red line, which denotes temperature, is beginning to wiggle back upwards.  In other words, the stratosphere is warming.  Now why would I, or any meteorologist at that, be concerned about warming taking place up in the stratosphere?  Well, when the stratosphere warms in winter, it forces cold air southward, simply said.  The stratosphere is doing this because of the negative trend of the QBO, or Quasi Biennial Oscillation.  The QBO essentially measures the direction and strength of the winds in the Pacific at high altitudes.  Right now, we are entering a negative to strongly negative QBO, which means that the winds are easterly.  These will cause massive changes in the weather we've been seeing lately.  This may take you by surprise folks.  Stay tuned!

Winter Forecast Coming Along

It's time for me to really get going on this winter forecast, and I think that it's coming along.  I have the weather pattern that I expect to happen pretty much down, so now I only need to fill it in with the actual forecast.  Just a little update.  Stay tuned!

Work Beginning on Final Winter Forecast

I made a post a while back that I would soon be issuing my final winter forecast, and work has begun on it.  We are right now working on our rough draft of it.  We hope to have these things in the end:

• The usuals: temperature, precipitation, and snowfall vs. average.
• Storm tracks
• Teleconnections and their impacts
• An overall map
• Plus some regional stuff for Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin.  I hate to give more in depth for one area, but I live around Rockford Illinois, I can't help it.

Now all of these are not guaranteed, and I may have a few other things, but overall I think I'll do a good job at it.  Stay tuned!

When Will Winter Come?????

THIS POST IS OUT OF DATE!!!!!!  REFER TO this post.
I know that a lot of you out there are snow lovers, and you are getting tired of the "warm" weather.  I also am willing to bet that a lot of people who read this blog are snow haters.  We all know that across the northern regions, snow is inevitable.  Eventually, winter will sweep over, and snow will cover the ground.  At this point, the question is when.  Well, we are already seeing signs that the atmosphere is gearing up for a big cold blast, one that may potentially last through the winter.  First of all, the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, has been positive over the last few months.  This has allowed cold air to build in the Arctic and Western Canada:

However, it is starting to look like a turn to a negative NAO is coming.  This will allow for the cold air that has been building up to spill southward through the United States.  Models are also showing the Greenland Block making a return, which generally leads to cold in the United States.  Let me show you what the models think is coming in the 8-10 day time frame:

I want you first to know that you should not take these maps for given, considering this a long ways out.  The arrival time is likely to be delayed a little bit.  I want you to pay particular attention to the GFS model's interpretation (on the right).  It is a perfect example of the Greenland block.  We see a lot of blocking in Greenland, causing cold air to spill southward into the US.  Again, the question isn't if, but when.  The NAO may hold a clue to that.  The GFS ensembles are showing the NAO diving negative over time:

This would result in some cold air across the eastern USA.  In summary, it looks like the NAO will go negative, and the country will turn cold.  The question is when.  While the models are showing this pattern change arriving in the next 1-2 weeks, I think it may wait until about halfway through November before we truly get cold.  Don't despair snow lovers!  Stay tuned!

Signs that Winter will be Snowy

Some people may know that this winter is shaping up to be very cold.  At this point, however, it is looking more and more likely that it will be very snowy, at least for certain areas.  The fact is, upper level temperatures are the coldest they've been for a while, and it appears that this helps produce bigger snowstorms.  Another thing is that we are seeing a lot of really slow moving storm systems.  The slower a storm moves, the more time there is for snow to fall, which leads to bigger accumulations.  Just a little piece of info for you to chew on until our official winter outlook is released.  Stay tuned!

Winter is Coming... And so is our Winter Forecast...

As many of you already know, winter is just around the corner.  Multiple locations nationwide have already experienced their first flurries, with a few places already seeing accumulations.  As October comes to a close, winter's comeback becomes even more noticeable, as temperatures begin to truly plummet in most areas.  Winter will arrive in just a few weeks.  And this means that our winter forecast is coming in this time period too.  While official release dates aren't necessary at this time, we expect to have it up before winter truly arrives.  Stay tuned!

It's Here!!!!!!!!

Our First-Look Winter Forecast has been fully issued!  Just click the page at the top, and you'll get it!  Go ahead!  Stay tuned!

2011-2012 Winter Forecast Page up

This page will get more maps as I make them.  Stay tuned.

Weather Funny

Well, last nights post about the up and coming winter forecast made me think, "I wonder what the Farmer's Almanac's winter forecast is?"  First, let me educate you on the Farmer's Almanac.  It is a book that provides information to farmers.  One of the things they do is "forecast" the weather.  Using Caleb Weatherbee (don't worry, it's just a pseudonym), their weather "expert," and a secret "formula," they forecast the weather and also provide long range forecasts.  They forecast the weather by months in advance, and to the general observer, they're incredibly accurate.  But, us meteorologists know that you can't accurately predict that far out.  Here's how they present their forecast.  Using regions, that have an average of about seven states, although one is made of 13 states, they choose a four day period and give their forecast.  But here's a secret: Even I can look two years in advance, pick a seven state region, a four day period, give you a very generalized forecast, and have it come true.  They also have a formula for long range forecasts, too.  The fact that they use some 100 year old formula is more believable here, as they are usually way off, even when everybody else is predicting the forecast correctly.  Anyway, cutting the chatter, here's the weather funny from their summer forecast:

Notice how they've forecasted "Very Wet" with "Nice Temps" for a region that has lately been baking, and been under the worst drought in recent memory.  I have to think about this one...  Stay tuned everybody!

2011-2012 Winter Forecast

THIS POST IS NOT UP TO DATE.  IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR OUR WINTER FORECAST, PLEASE GO HERE

Well, as much as you hate to admit it (or maybe not, with the heat), Summer is going strong, but Fall and eventually Winter are right around the corner.  This is the first in the 2011-2012 Winter Forecast series.  Right now, we are simply alerting you of the factors we are beginning to look at.  First, and possibly most important, is the ENSO cycle.  ENSO, or El Nino Southern Oscillation, looks like it is heading into the La Nina phase.  We're also looking at the negative PDO, and the strong ridge that is already across the Plains, among other "secret" things.  We're also going to come up with a Fall forecast soon.  As for a winter sneak peek, two phrases: Great Lakes, Polar air (can you figure it out?).  Stay tuned!

Edit: We are getting a LOT of views on this post, and obviously it was only a sneak peak.  If you are reading this, I am directing you to view our 2011-2012 First-Look Winter Forecast page to get the real good stuff.