Severe Weather in the Plains

July 16, 2011

StormWatch: Burleigh County, North Dakota storm

We certainly found a gem of a storm out in North Dakota this morning.  It has already left a trail of damage, and it's getting stronger.  First, a reflectivity image:
We can see a core of intense precipitation, indicated by pink and black colors on radar.  Next, we use our "new school" hail forecasting system again:
I put Probability Of Severe Hail on the left, with Maximum Estimated Hail Size on the right.  In the core, we find a 100% chance of severe hail, along with maximum hail size estimates in excess of 3.5 inches.  So we realize that we have quite the storm for morning-time.  Now let's take a look at a volume scan:
In this scan, I isolated the 60dbz values (dbz is a measure of reflectivity).  Generally, 60dbz is about the threshold when you look for hail.  But in this case, there's so much purple, we have to isolate even higher values.  In the next image we isolate 70dbz values:
The purple is still 60dbz, I left it in there to keep a feel of the storm's texture.  But see that little core of white?  That is the 70dbz core.  We may be looking into the fact that rather extreme hail could exist in this storm.  Stay tuned!

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