Tropicast: 08/01/2011

First of all, I'd like to say welcome back.  We are expecting to have big changes on this blog, so be sure to keep watch for all of the new things I have up my sleeve.  Back to the tropics.  Today, we are going to start in the East Pacific.  Here is the NHC's outlook:

The first, and only, thing that we notice is Eugene.  Eugene is a moderate tropical storm at the time of writing, with sustained winds around 60 mph.  It looks like Eugene is little threat to land.  Still, interests in Western Mexico should keep watch for possible rough waves and any drastic changes in the forecast track, shown here (this image will update itself):

As you can see, its no threat to land at this point.  Because of this, I won't be drawing my own forecast track for this storm, however I will put up a page for it.  It looks like it could get up to minimal hurricane status before weakening.  Now, let's move on to the Atlantic Ocean:

See that red circled area with (90%) written next to it?  This is a storm I want to keep a very close eye on.  This is likely going to be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, and it is a threat to Caribbean islands, as well as the US.  Yesterday it looked like it was just going to explode into Category four status, but right now it's a little bit more uncertain.  It now looks like a Category two at best.  This drop off is for two reasons: it was supposed to be a depression already by now, and because it is expected to track over more of the islands, reducing intensity.  Due to the potential dangers this system possesses, I have a map ready:

The blue lines represent the extreme western and eastern tracks of this system, while the red track is what I feel like is going to happen.  This storm will be named Emily should it develop, and because of the high chances of this happening, I went ahead and labeled the map Emily instead of Invest 91L.  A page will be up concerning this storm shortly.  Also, look out for a tropical weather mapwall.  Stay tuned!