Tropicast: 08/03/2011

Today's Tropicast concerns Hurricane Eugene and Tropical Storm Emily, along with Invest 97E in the East Pacific.  First, Eugene.  Eugene is a major hurricane at this time, with winds to 115 mph.  Over the next few days, a rapid weakening trend is expected with this storm.  We also have Invest 97E in the East Pacific.  Although there is a high chance of development from the NHC, this storm shouldn't attain much more than tropical storm status, assuming it even does develop.  Lastly, we have Emily.  Here is my latest map for this storm:

Emily's track has become more certain over the past few days, however significant spread still develops between the models after about three days.  The blue is, as usual, the cone of uncertainty, with the red being USA Weather's official track.  However, Emily is expected to be ripped apart by the mountainous terrain of the island of Hispaniola.  She may even dissipate.  If she doesn't, then she will probably strengthen rapidly to a Category one hurricane, and Category three isn't even out of question.  Stay tuned.