Okay guys, not surprisingly I have received a few complaints about not getting the winter forecast out. So I just figured, Merry Christmas, here you go. What's going on this year is that we have a weak La Nina. A La Nina tends to bring a trough in the west/central part of the country, and a ridge in the southeast part of the country. In general, the Midwest and Northeast experience a cooler pattern out of this. Obviously, this hasn't been the case as of late. Because the La Nina is so weak, it has lost it's grip on the rest of the weather and how we think it should play out. This has allowed the Midwest/East areas to have some very warm temperatures this December, along with little to no snow. This has been mainly a result of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation and a positive Arctic Oscillation. These indices relate to the placement/strength of the pressure gradients across the Arctic. In other words, it relates to the way winds flow around the earth. In a positive version of these indices, much of the country is above normal in the temperature department, and we also tend to see a lot of precipitation. Now as of right now, I am looking at a time around Mid-January for when the pattern flops and the cold and snow return to the east. This is due to stratospheric warming occurring right now. This should flip the AO to negative, with the NAO following in suit. Now what does this mean for the country? It means that I still think we will be seeing a flip to colder conditions sooner rather than later. The following maps reflect what has happened already, and what I expect to happen soon.
All right here we go! First off, let's take a look at temperatures compared to average for this winter. Let's start in the Southeast. As you can see in the map above, I expect warmer than average conditions to be common in the Southeast this winter. This is mainly in response to the Southeast ridge that I expect to develop this winter. Now minus this area of above average temperatures, you may be surprised to find that the rest of the country is either average or below average! That's how big I expect this pattern change to be. Once it happens, it should be able to even out the positive temperature deficits. The Southwest is below average because of the cold they have been experiencing as of late with the trough in place. I expect that they will get some cold shots later in the winter too.
Okay on to precipitation. I expect that the West Coast will get hammered with precipitation this year, so I have put that area in on the map in the Northwest. I expect that below average precipitation should develop in the Southeast and Southwest. There will also be a large area of above average precipitation right smack in the middle of the country and Northeast. This has to do with the excessively active storm tracks that I expect to continue throughout this winter. Many cities across the Ohio Valley are breaking/close to breaking rainfall records for this year. This should lead to enhanced amounts of snow across these regions, but it may not be enough to bring them up to average after a slow start...
Areas that already got a nice start with snow this year should experience above average snow as they should only expect snow to continue. Because of this, I have highlighted the Northeast (October Snowstorm), the Pacific Northwest (Active Storm Tracks) and the Midwest. The areas in between in the Ohio Valley won't be able to come back to average after a slow start, but they should still expect an exciting winter this year.
We are looking at an ice threat across the Central US this winter, as I still expect that a storm or two will take a northerly track and produce at least a small freezing rain threat for these areas. A threat for a bigger ice storm will be mainly across the southern portions of this area. Here are my forecast storm tracks for the winter:
First let's start with our blue track. These are where Alberta Clippers should go. These storms will bring cold air and nuisance snows to the Midwest. The red tracks are where storms will develop in the Panhandle region/Colorado before moving up into the Midwest. A similar thing will occur in the orange track, except these will emerge straight from the Gulf of Mexico. These two tracks will be the ones that will bring the Midwest copious amounts of moisture and precipitation. A similar thing will occur in the Northeast, highlighted by the purple track. And last but not least, the green track will bring the West Coast its weather makers for this winter.
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| Pattern 1 |
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| Pattern 2 |
The above two images are my final two images of the day. These display the major patterns that I expect to occur this winter. There is a typo on the second pattern. It says "Pattern #1" when it should say "Pattern #2". Okay, that's all I have for now. Stay tuned!
We are looking at an ice threat across the Central US this winter, as I still expect that a storm or two will take a northerly track and produce at least a small freezing rain threat for these areas. A threat for a bigger ice storm will be mainly across the southern portions of this area. Here are my forecast storm tracks for the winter:
First let's start with our blue track. These are where Alberta Clippers should go. These storms will bring cold air and nuisance snows to the Midwest. The red tracks are where storms will develop in the Panhandle region/Colorado before moving up into the Midwest. A similar thing will occur in the orange track, except these will emerge straight from the Gulf of Mexico. These two tracks will be the ones that will bring the Midwest copious amounts of moisture and precipitation. A similar thing will occur in the Northeast, highlighted by the purple track. And last but not least, the green track will bring the West Coast its weather makers for this winter.
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