Severe Weather in the Plains

December 11, 2011

Winter Pattern Change is Coming...

The stratosphere has begun warming at the five millibar level.  Here is an image:
If we look really closely, we can see that the red line, which denotes temperature, is beginning to wiggle back upwards.  In other words, the stratosphere is warming.  Now why would I, or any meteorologist at that, be concerned about warming taking place up in the stratosphere?  Well, when the stratosphere warms in winter, it forces cold air southward, simply said.  The stratosphere is doing this because of the negative trend of the QBO, or Quasi Biennial Oscillation.  The QBO essentially measures the direction and strength of the winds in the Pacific at high altitudes.  Right now, we are entering a negative to strongly negative QBO, which means that the winds are easterly.  These will cause massive changes in the weather we've been seeing lately.  This may take you by surprise folks.  Stay tuned!

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