Moderate Risk of Severe Weather Today

Today we find a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in the southern plains:

This comes as a dry line marches across the region.  According to the NAM computer model, a dry line bulge will develop in the threat area.  A dry line bulge is area where severe weather is typically enhanced, with tornadoes being most likely in storms along the bulge:

I drew it in with a black marker above.  NAM simulated reflectivity is indicating that there will be a few storms along the dry line, with the worse of them sitting up at the dry line bulge.  Taking these and a few other factors into account, I produced this map:

I did include a larger risk area than the SPC did mainly due to the fact that the NAM is indicating that storms may fire farther south than the current risk area indicates.  For more information from the SPC, click here.  Stay tuned!