We yet again have a severe threat to deal with today. Its really been a rough week for the Plains, with a lot of slight risks being issued. I am sorry for my absence yesterday, I was on an all day field trip. Anyway, back to severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a slight risk for severe thunderstorms:
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| General Outlook |
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| Tornado Outlook |
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| Hail Outlook |
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| Wind Outlook |
With a glance at those maps, I know that this is already looking like the most likely day for an upgrade to a moderate risk so far this week. It appears that the SPC is really hitting it up on the hail threat for this afternoon. After glancing at the models for this afternoon, it appears definite to me that there is a threat for supercells and tornados with tonight's event. First of all, instability is sufficient to produce severe thunderstorms. Also, there is plentiful shear for storms to really get going. Another thing that I looked at is the fact that LCL heights are much lower to the ground than previous events this week have had. LCL, or Lifted Condensation Level is basically where the temperature equals the dewpoint first. It is a good indicator for how high the cloud base will be. Today, LCLs are relatively low, so we can expect a couple of tornados across the risk area, particularly in Oklahoma. Also, anvil level winds support High Precipitation to Classic supercells, with the latter being the most likely to produce a tornado, particularly strong ones. Taking all of this into account, I got this:
I decided not to issue a moderate risk quite yet due to some uncertainty as to exactly what the main forcing is. Also, the SPC has not issued a moderate risk yet, so I decided to just play it safe. Please note however that this is a high end slight risk, and strong tornados are possible today. If the situation warrants, I may upgrade this to a moderate in a *possible* update this afternoon. For now, stay tuned!
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