Tropicast: 07/18/2011

Welcome to our exclusive Tropicast!  Let's get started with the Atlantic Ocean.  We haven't been too active this July, and that's not uncommon.  However, we have been watching the ocean analyses almost daily since hurricane season began, and have noted a slow and steady change towards a more favorable tropical environment in this ocean.  Thus, the door for tropical cyclones should be opening up just in time for August, which is typically the first "worrisome" month of the hurricane season.  However, Tropical Storm Bret has formed out of nowhere, and is not expected to impact land.  Here is his current location:

We don't expect him to reach hurricane strength at this time, but he could get very near it.  Moving on to the Pacific Ocean, we do find an area that should become a depression very soon:

It has a 90% chance of development in the next 48 hours.  Obviously, we don't expect Bret to do much more in his lifetime, but this one honestly could become the next Pacific major hurricane.  It looks very intense on the models, with the intensity ones bringing it up to Cat. 3 intensity.  Stay tuned on this one!