Hurricane Irene Briefing #04

No video for today.  Let's get started!  Irene's potential to hit New England directly is increasing, whereas the potential for a Carolinas direct hit is decreasing.  Irene has just become a Category three hurricane according to the update issued by the National Hurricane Center just a few minutes ago.  Here is the NHC's latest track:

They are simply trying to ride the latest model runs.  At this time it looks like they only have a Carolina landfall on the Outer Banks.  They do however bring the center of the hurricane straight into New England, which could be a potentially devastating solution, even with a weaker storm.  I do think that the most interesting story however is the continued eastward trend in the models.  Here is a look at the trends of the model consensus.  The darkest line is the latest preferred track, with the lighter blues indicating earlier model runs:

The eastward trend is very visible.  Finally, here is the latest NHC intensity forecast:

That is all I have for you now.  Stay tuned!