Hurricane Irene Briefing #05

Well, the models are trending again.  And the latest trend has not been good.  Over the past couple of runs, the models are starting to push the storm back westward again, bringing it on a better path for a direct hit with North Carolina, with Outer Banks getting hit hardest.  This map shows the last few model runs for this storm, with the darkest lines being the most recent tracks.  The image is showing the consensus of all the models:

We can see that the last few runs have indeed trended back westward.  Yesterday morning it looked like it was trending eastward.  The following map shows the alerts for this storm and the NHC's official track:

The intensity forecast really has not changed.  That is all I have for you today.  One more quick announcement, it looks like I will NOT be in office at ALL this afternoon and evening.  Stay tuned.