Tropicast: 08/10/2011

The only thing of interest today is Invest 92L because of its potential to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season.  As of right now, the system has only a 20% chance of development per the NHC:

However, they do mention that there is potential for slow development of this system over the next few days.  This is where the uncertainty kicks in.  IF it develops, and that is a big if, we could be dealing with a hurricane this weekend out in the Atlantic.  It would likely stay away from the U.S.  However, a few models actually keep this thing as a tropical wave, with no development.  A couple of models are showing this thing cutting into the Gulf of Mexico, so although it should track away from land, we still need to watch this feature.  STay tuned.