Severe Weather in the Plains

October 18, 2011

Chances for Tropical Development decreasing rapidly

The NHC has downgraded their chance for development on the system in the Caribbean down to 10%.  At this point, it is doing exactly what I told you it would do.  It is becoming extratropical.  Here is the latest map of the area:
At this point, we are not too worried about tropical development at all.  However, this system is expected to merge with another system in the Midwest, creating a Nor'easter that will ride up through the Mid-Atlantic, bringing heavy rains and mountain snows.  Here is the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, or QPF, from the HPC:
 This will certainly become an interesting situation, and we will update you on it as updates come in.  Stay tuned!

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