New Tropical Threat?

We are currently watching a system that has developed off the coast of Yucatan, as it currently has a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours.  After this time period, however, the NHC indicates that upper level winds will become unfavorable for development.  Will get to this more in a minute.  First, the NHC's map of the area:

The visible satellite imagery shows a well-defined system that should be able to develop, and the infrared is the same:

There is one problem: wind shear.  Currently, this system is surrounded by an area of strong shear, according to CIMSS.  Shear is detrimental to tropical storm production.  Here is the map:

The location of the system is just off of the Yucatan Peninsula, in case you were wondering.  The GFS model is indicating that the upper level winds will indeed become unfavorable for development soon.  So what does this mean?  I think that we will see a tropical storm develop, but it should become extratropical before it reaches land.  Here is my current projected path:

This should be similar to the "Unnamed Storm" that hit Florida last week.  That's all I have for now, stay tuned!