Severe Weather Outlook

Today is a slight risk day for the Plains:

As usual, if you live within the yellow areas, make sure that you and people around you are aware that you are at risk for severe thunderstorms, including isolated tornadoes, strong winds, and very large hail.  Make sure that you have a reliable source to receive watches and warnings as they are put out and that you know what to do if one is issued.  The highest threat of severe thunderstorms exists along the North Dakota/South Dakota border.  While the main threat is wind damage, very large hail and even an isolated tornado can not be ruled out either.  We notice some strong divergence today on the 500 mb forecast from the NAM model at 0000 UTC tonight:

I have drawn it in with the red lines.  You can see how the winds seem to split, which is a sign of both a strong system and rising air.  Here is my map:

Stay tuned.